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The Russian Gas Industry to 2020
by Anonymous
The Russian Gas Industry to 2020 examines the problems and prospects for Russia's ambitious gas reform programme, and considers its impact upon the future development of the Russian gas industry as a whole.
Key issues examined include Russia's rapidly changing political and commercial environment; Gazprom's sometimes problematical business culture; major political and economic problems in Russian gas reform; the impact of Russian gas reform on the development of Russian gas exports; the role of foreign investment in Russian gas development; and Russia's relations with both gas producers and gas consumers in the independent republics of the former Soviet Union.
Special attention is paid to the future of Russian gas exports to Europe, particularly within the context of the liberalisation of energy markets in the European Union.
Also considered is the possible role of East Siberian gas in allowing new Russian penetration of rapidly growing gas markets in Japan, Korea and China.
The main question the report addresses is Russia's best strategy for expanding its gas exports and so improving its balance of payments. One school of thought holds that Russia should create an improved climate for foreign investment. This would lead to expanded domestic gas production and greater penetration of foreign export markets. A rival school of thought holds that acquisition of relatively cheap Turkmen and Uzbek gas supplies would go a considerable ways towards fulfilling Russia's European export requirements. This would preclude the need for large-scale foreign investment (and its sometimes troubling political implications) and also reduce the urgency of gas sector re-restructuring.
Audience:
· E&P Companies with an interest in Russia
· Corporate and Project Finance Specialists
· Portfolio Managers
· European Energy Companies
· Law Firms with a Russian or pan-European Energy Practice
· Energy Consultants
· Support Services Sector
For a complete index of this report click on http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/19819
Report Index:
Chapter 1: The Political Dimension
-Vladimir Putin and the New Environment in Russia
-Recent Maco-Economic Successes and Future Prospects
-The Impact of September 11- Russia in the Minds of the International Hydrocarbon Community
Chapter 2: Russia's Gas Profile
-Reserve Estimates and Major Fields
-Gazprom's Perspective on Foreign Investment
-Gas Infrastructure
-Russia and the Greater Eurasian Gas Production Complex
-The Future Russian Gas Balance
-Gas Balance Implications
Chapter 3: The Gazprom Monopoly
-Company Profile
-Gazprom's Murky Past
-Gazprom's Dealings and Shareholder Confidence
Chapter 4: Russian Gas Re-Structuring
-The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Re-Structuring Blueprint
-Issues in Russian Gas Re-Structuring
-Political Considerations
-Prospects for Russian Gas Re-Structuring
Chapter 5: Foreign Investment in the Russian Gas Industry
-Pros and Cons
-The PSA Framework
-Recent PSA Developments
-Recent Sub-Soil Licensing Developments
-Issues for Foreign Investors in Caspian Sea Waters
-Tax Changes
-Expatriate Tax Exposure in the Russian Federation
Chapter 6: Russian Gas Development and Russia's Relations with FSU Republics
-The Ukraine
-Russia and Central Asia-A Tactical Perspective
-Turkmenistan
-Uzbekistan
-Tajikistan
-Kazakhstan
-Azerbaijan
-Kyrgyzstan
-Central Asian Gas Export and Russia
Chapter 7: Russian and the European Gas Market
-Russian Sales Targets
-The Competition
-The European Gas Market-Country by Country Survey
-Russia's European Gas Infrastructure-Enough Capacity?
-European Gas Liberalisation and Russian Gas Exports
Chapter 8: Russia and Asian Gas Exports
-The Asian Gas Market
-Sakhalin Gas Development and the Japan Gas Pipeline Project
-Korean Gas Export Projects
-Chinese Gas Export Projects
Chapter 9: The Future of the Russian Gas Industry
-Russia and the World Gas Trade
-The Importance of Gas Industry Re-Structuring in Russian Gas Development
-A Paradigm for the Russian Gas Industry in 2020
The Russian Federation is by far the world's largest gas reservoir. According to British Petroleum, Russian gas reserves in 2001 amounted to 48 trillion cubic metres. This accounted for 32.9% of the world total. Iran was in second place with 15.7%. It was followed by Qatar at 5.8% and the United Arab Emirates at 4.1%.
Gazprom is Russia's state-run gas monopoly. Founded in 1992, it produces nearly 94% of Russia's natural gas, and operates the country's 140,000km gas pipeline grid, which includes 43 compressor stations. Its gas reserves amount to about 33 trillion cubic metres. Reflecting its vast scope, the company is Russia's largest earner of foreign exchange; in 2000 it exported 123bn cu metres to Europe worth $12.5bn. It is also the largest contributor to the Russian treasury, accounting for some 25% of all federal government tax revenues in both 2000 and 2001.
Notwithstanding its huge size, Gazprom still faces two major problems in developing Russia's gas resources. The first is the low price it receives for its gas in the domestic market. At the end of 2001 this amounted to $9.48 per 1,000 cu metres of gas for household users (22 cents less than it was costing them) and $14.43 per 1,000 cu metres for industrial users. According to Gazprom, these prices meant that it was producing gas at a loss. By contrast, the average European price for both household and industrial users in 2001 was $116.55 per 1,000 cu metres. (In 2002 the European average price was expected to slip to about $90.00 per 1,000 cu metres).
Gazprom's second major financial problem is the widespread tendency of Russian gas customers not to pay their bills. In 2001 the company estimated that some $2.7bn in gas payments were in arrears.
The major effect of the low domestic gas prices and the unpaid gas bills is to severely limit the amount of money that Gazprom has at its disposal to invest in new Russian gas developments. This suggests that without a fundamental reform of the entire Russian gas market, Russia's gas production will never reach the potential allowed by the mammoth size of the country's gas reserves.
The mainstay of Russian gas production is West Siberia, with the major producers including Urengoy (the largest gas field in the world), Yamburg and Medvezdhe.
The largest West Siberian gas development in years went onstream in October of 2001. This was the Zapolyarnoye field, which had an initial production level of 20bn cu metres/yr. Peak production of 100bn cu metres/yr is expected to begin in 2004.
But the large Zapolyarnoye output notwithstanding, West Siberia is still facing serious gas depletion problems, and many analysts believe that by 2003 or 2004 its production levels will begin to contract by more than 5% annually. As a consequence of this trend, Gazprom is looking to spread its wings into other promising gas development areas in the Russian Federation such as the Yamal Peninsula, which lies adjacent to the Arctic Ocean due north of the Urengoy field.
But Gazprom's Yamal initiatives aside, many Russian analysts still remain skeptical about the ability of the Yamal development projects to get off the ground much before 2010, if even then. There is also a serious question of financial feasibility, particularly within the context of gas development plans in the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Always assuming that the plans bear fruit, it would make much more sense for the Russian Federation to use Central Asian rather than Yamal gas in fulfilling its domestic gas needs and its European gas export obligations. This reflects the cost differential between Central Asian gas development on the one hand and Yamal gas development on the other.
In addition to Yamal, Gazprom is also eyeing the area of the Barents Sea (in European Russia) for future gas development projects. One Barents project of particular interest to it is the Shtokmanovskoye field, which could have resources in excess of 2 trillion cu metres.
In addition to Gazprom, several other large Russian hydrocarbon companies are also eager to expand their presence in the Russian gas arena. That presence has traditionally been limited, largely because of Gazprom's control over Russia's gas pipeline system. A major demand of the hydrocarbon companies is for the Russian government to guarantee equal pipeline access within the context of its pending reform programme for the Russian gas industry.
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Click on http://www.researchandmarkets.com for details.
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
Research and Markets Ltd
laura.wood@researchandmarkets.com
REPORT DATA SUMMARY:
The Russian Gas Industry to 2020
Publisher Name: CWC Publishing
Date Published: 26/03/03
Category: Energy & Natural Resources
URL: www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/19819
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